17.3 million IPTV subscribers in Asia Pacific by 2010

Ovum RHK has published the results of a 14-country independent assessment of broadband deployments and service drivers in the Asia-Pacific region, with a specific focus on fiber-to-the-x (FTTx).

The result was based on interviews with major carriers in Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, the study addresses fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), fiber-to-the-building (FTTB), digital subscriber line (DSL), cable modem termination system (CMTS), and wireless initiatives throughout the region. It was conducted jointly by Ovum RHK and the APAC FTTH Council.

“Ovum believes there will be over 195 million broadband subscribers in Asia-Pacific by the end of 2010,” said Lynn Hutcheson, Vice President, Communication Components at Ovum RHK. “Many operators indicated that content services were going to be a key component of their offerings. However, there are vast differences as to how each country regulates IPTV and content delivery over telecom infrastructures.”

I was able to correspond with David Kennedy, Ovum's Research Director (Telecoms - Asia Pacific) and got the following as well:

• There were 98 million broadband subscribers in Asia-Pacific region (including China and India) in December 2006.
• There were a total of 1.5 million IPTV services in the Asia Pacific in December 2006. This is lower than In-Stat's estimate of 2.7 million IPTV 2006 subscribers. This is probably due to differences in the definition of IPTV and markets included in their respective definition of the region.
• By IPTV, Ovum refers to ‘paid for’ television services offered to consumers by telecom operators and ISPs. According to Kennedy, "These services are usually provided using IPTV technology, but we use the term more widely to include services provided by those above using other technologies such as digital terrestrial television and satellite, often as a hybrid solution. They are sold as part of a bundled offering (typically including broadband access and fixed line telephony), or as a standalone service."
• Ovum excludes television services provided over the public Internet, often known as Internet or Web TV. They also exclude television services supplied by cable operators, satellite broadcasters, free-to-air digital television broadcasters, and free-to-air analogue television broadcasters.They also exclude video on-demand (VoD) services provided by telecom operators and others.
• Ovum projects 17.3 million IPTV subscribers in the region by December 2010.

The businesses that will be most affected by IPTV growth are those into DVD rental, Free to Air TV, and pay TV services. It will be interested to know how the business model of this segment shall evolve to survive this upcoming market changes.

Online Gaming Community Worldwide Reaches 217 Million People

comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) released the results of a global study into online gaming, showing the number of unique visitors to these sites to have reached almost 217 million worldwide – a year-on-year growth of 17 percent.

The comScore World Metrix study took into account all sites that provide online or downloadable games, excluding gambling sites. The sector attracted 28 percent of the total worldwide online population in May and recorded an average of 9 visits per visitor. Said Bob Ivins, EVP and managing director of comScore Europe:

“With one in four Internet users visiting a gaming site, playing games online is extremely popular. The fact that these websites are pulling in over a quarter of the total worldwide Internet population shows what a global phenomenon gaming has become. The potential of the online gaming arena should be especially appealing for advertisers, as the average online gamer visits a gaming site 9 times a month.”

Yahoo! Games was the largest property, attracting 53 million unique visitors. MSN Games followed in second place, having grown by 16 percent since May 2006 to reach 40 million unique visitors in May 2007. Both properties provide a mixture of strategy, trivia, arcade, and board games, with puzzle and card games proving to be the most popular choices for gamers in both cases.

Other popular sites include Miniclip, EA Online, Free Online Games, Addicting Games, RealArcade sites, Zylom, and WildTangent.

IPTV to Make Big Gains in Asia

Competition between IPTV and cable/satellite TV is heating up in Asia, with IPTV poised to gain significant market share over the next several years, reports In-Stat. With the help of IPTV, incumbent telcos have the opportunity to fundamentally change their broadband customers' video service experience, from traditional video clip streaming to downloading and just plain watching TV.

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• There were 2.7 million IPTV subscribers in Asia in 2006, and this number is expected to exceed 33 million by 2012.
• Total revenue from consumers of IPTV content broadcasted in Asia/Pacific will reach US$8 billon by 2012.
• Mature markets include Japan and Hong Kong, contributing to about 60% of the total Asia/Pacific subscriber population in 2006; these markets are expected to continue to lead Asia/Pacific in IPTV development.

Conditional access products and technologies are gaining ground due to this growth trend.

Worldwide broadband subscribers to hit 567 million by 2011

Over the past 12 months, approximately 65 million new broadband subscribers signed up for high-speed access to the Internet, reports In-Stat. By 2011, total worldwide broadband subscribers will number 567 million, almost double the current 285 million subscriber base, the high-tech market research firm says.

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• DSL and cable modem services are the top access technologies, providing 92% of worldwide broadband connections.
• By 2011, worldwide DSL subscribers will account for 58% of all worldwide broadband connections.
• By 2011, there will be over 55 million households using a Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH) architecture to provide broadband access.
  

The In-Stat research, "Broadband Gets Big: Global Broadband Subs Hit 285 Million" covers the worldwide market for broadband services. It provides forecasts for broadband subscribers by technology and by region through 2011. It also contains analysis of market drivers and barriers for each of the access technologies.

Inevitable decline in fixed line access continues in Asia-Pacific

According to Ovum, the analyst and consulting company, fixed line access continues to decline in Asia Pacific, but at a slower rate than previously.

One key finding of Ovum's recently published report 'Regional overview: Asia Pacific' which surveys developed market performance concludes: Average incumbent decline in Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) access lines slowed for the second year running to only 1.6% in full year ending 2006 compared to 1.8% in 2005. This rate of decline is far less than in Western Europe, which averaged 5% in the same period.

The decline in AP is being driven by the same factors as elsewhere: fixed-to-mobile substitution (FMS), increased competition and the removal of second lines due to broadband growth. However, cheaper line rental is resulting in fewer cord cuts and limited churn away from the incumbent to alternative providers. In addition, organic growth in some markets is offsetting decline.

Average PSTN revenues however fell more sharply, by 5% in 2006, due to price drops, competition and falling volumes attributable to FMS and VoIP. Single-digit PSTN revenue decline is expected going forward.

To stem the tide, operators are turning to subscription-based pricing and bundling.

Other key findings of the 'Regional Overview: Asia Pacific' report include:

• Average broadband ARPU declined 5% in 2006.
• Average mobile connection growth in 2006 in the markets surveyed slowed to 5%, half the 2005 rate.
• Average mobile revenue in 2006 grew 7%.
• After a considerable squeeze in 2005, margins in 2006 are fairly flat.
  

Social networks face membership and monetization issues

It is know that online communities (social networks) have experienced stellar growth in recent years. However, high tech market research firm In-Stat reports that their future remains somewhat uncertain and sees both membership and monetization as key issues for social networking sites. Only those that can overcome these issues will survive.

In-Stat also found the following:

• MySpace is the most popular social networking website with 140 million members
• 30% of survey respondents pay for premium services or features on social networking sites.
• Site operators are still struggling to find profitable business models. Respondents who indicated no future plans to purchase premium services on social networking websites cited expense and lack of desired services and features as the main reasons for lack of purchase.
• Less than 13% of survey respondents use mobile social networking services. Furthermore, the overwhelming response was that the use of mobile devices for social networking simply was not of interest to them.
• The biggest American generation, the baby boomers, is frequently overlooked.
  

10.6 Million U.S. Households Now Use a VoIP Telephone Service

Cable operators and Vonage are driving continuing growth in the US residential Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) telephone market, according to In-Stat. According to data from the high-tech market research firm's US Residential VoIP Market Tracker service, more than 10.6 million US households now have at least one active VoIP user, up from approximately 9 million households at the end of Q3. The emergence of the cable operators as a dominant market force seems to have slowed the growth of the client-based VoIP market, with only Skype showing gains in this segment during the 4th Quarter.

The firm's service utilizes a combination of end-user research and market analysis to estimate usage and market share among all of the major service providers, network-based providers such as the cable operators, analog-telephone adapter (ATA)-based services providers such as Vonage and SunRocket, and client-based providers such as Skype, on an ongoing basis. Recent research from the service also revealed that:

• More than 61 % of active residential VoIP users reported that they had discontinued or replaced a traditional (non-VoIP) phone service when they got their VoIP service, including a whopping 76 % of those who use only a network/ATA-based service like those offered by the cable companies or Vonage.
  
  
• Skype's dominance of the client-based VoIP market has grown as its major competitors in this segment lost active users during the fourth quarter while it continued to show strong growth.
  
  
• The ability to bypass international tolls continues to be a big driver of client-based VoIP services, with users of client-based VoIP services reporting that 52 % of their VoIP calls are international long distance while network/ATA-based VoIP users report only 6 % of their calls are international long distance.
  
  
• The percentage of residential VoIP users who report that they use their service for business calls either in part or exclusively continues to rise with 51 % reporting that they use the service for both business and personal calls and 4 % reporting they use it exclusively for business calls.